#include
Invasion of the Gadgets
I keep expecting to witness the demise of the personal computer, but reality thwarts me at every turn. One would think that the PC is a product whose time has come and
gone. Back in the days when personal computers were really expensive, it was important that they run multiple applications. Dedicated word processors seemed an extravagance in 1983, when for $3,000 you could buy a PC with a 10MB Winchester and 256K of RAM and run WordStar, Lotus 1-2-3, primitive presentation graphics programs, and Flight Simulator on a 12-in. monochrome monitor. You can spend a third of that amount today and get something with a lot more juice, but even if you spend $3,000 for a PC, that's a
fraction of the cost it was in '83. However, even less expensive, more dedicated products are either here today or on their way. If you believe the old saw about the right tool for the job, then dedicated products ought to be the way to go, whether you're talking about the workshop, the kitchen, or the office. The Shopsmith, the Veg-a-Matic, and the personal computer all represent compromises.
Customers typically want applications-not all-in-one miracles. This is one reason why so many computers ended
up in the closet in the early '80s. The growth of the PC corresponded to the development of killer apps. Now applications can be delivered on another platform that costs significantly less than a PC. These dedicated systems are siphoning off desktop applications one-by-one. In his recent discovery of embedded systems, Jesse Berst, the editorial director at Zdnet's Anchordesk, defines a subset of products he calls "gadgets" that include "smart consumer electronics devices, home entertainment systems, smart
watches, smart phones, GPS gear and mapping systems in cars." (See www.zdnet.com/anchordesk/story/story
_2363.html). He predicts that a lot of these gadgets will talk to each other in just a few years: "The key word will be connection-not convergence," he says.
This subset of embedded systems is the one that could spell the end of PCs. What would drive people to abandon their PCs and opt instead for a myriad of embedded devices? Conventional wisdom about embedded systems says that they're inexpensive and
reliable, you don't have to reboot them, and for those devices that interconnect, you just plug them in without calling on the services of a systems administrator. Cheap, reliable, easy-to-use-can you see the appeal?
In a banner headline luridly announcing the "Death of the PC-centric Era," Frank Gens, an analyst at IDC asserts that thanks to the Internet, non-PC devices will account for nearly 50% of unit shipments by 2002 (www.idcresearch.com/F/Ei/gens19.htm). These devices include set-top boxes,
phones, PDAs, and videogame consoles that are all Web-enabled. By 2004 or 2005, IDC foresees that appliances will exceed PC shipments.
Jesse Berst predicts even more aggressively that a majority of Internet connected devices will be non-PCs by the year 2000. Given that the Internet has driven the rise in PC sales over the past few years, could this stuff be their death knell? Probably not. The PC market will continue to grow as well. Although the personal computer won't disappear anytime soon, it's likely
to get lost in the clamor of new gadgets coming to market.
Lindsey Vereen
lvereen@cmp.com
Return to Embedded.com
Send comments to:
Webmaster
All material on this site Copyright © 2000
CMP Media Inc. All rights reserved.
|
