LONDON The latest figures from the International Distribution of Electronics Association (IDEA) show that the rate of decline in the European Electronic Components distributor total available market (DTAM) accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2008.
This maintained the historic annual billings trend of a strong first followed by three declining quarters. Bookings also declined in Q4 ‘08, and the book-to-bill ratio fell to 0.98:1.
According to Adam Fletcher, IDEA vice president, the figures are broadly inline with the association’s guidance and are hardly surprising given the turbulence in the global economy brought about by the financial crisis.
“The sharp decline in bookings in Q4 ’08 suggests that 2009 is unlikely to follow historical trends,” said Fletcher. “A declining first half followed by a modest improvement in the second half now seems a more plausible scenario.”
Fletcher believes that IDEA has limited market visibility, however the association believes that billings are likely to decline between 10 to 14 percent in the first half compared to the same period last year: “I don’t believe anybody can forecast accurately today but it seems likely that we’ll end the year in slightly negative territory.” he said. “My best guesstimate would be in the range 5 to 8 percent.”
Total European distribution bookings (net sales orders entered) in Q4 ‘08 declined by 8 percent when compared to the previous quarter and declined by 17 percent when compared to the same period last year. Sector specific Bookings changes in Q4 ’08 compared to the same period last year were: semiconductors declined by 17.1 percent; passives by 17.4 percent; whilst electro-mechs and other components declined by 16.5 percent.
Total European distribution billings (net sales invoiced less credits) in Q4 ‘08 declined by 8.9 percent, when compared to the previous quarter and declined by 10.3 percent when compared to the same period last year. Sector specific Billings changes in Q4 ’08 compared to the same period last year were: semiconductors declined by 9.8 percent); passives declined by 11.2 percent ; electro-mechs and other components declined by 11.3 percent.
The International Distribution of Electronics Association (IDEA) is a consortium of independent Trade Associations operating in the global electronic component distribution market. The data included in the European DTAM report was complied from statistics provided by AFDEC (U.K./Nordic), Assodel (Italy), FBDi (Germany) and SPDEI (France). Statistics are gathered quarterly from over 100 authorised distributors of electronic components operating in Denmark, France, Finland, Italy, Germany, Norway and the U.K.
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