When I worked for IBM I enjoyed reading the predictions of the “long-time IBM watchers” in the trade press. These adventurers would attempt to predict what IBM would be doing in some area, such as personal computers or disk drives-and they seemed to be invariably far from the mark. From my point of view as an IBM employee, these “IBM watchers” had two major problems. First, they were not IBM employees, and, therefore, were outsiders to the culture and workings of the company. Second, they seemed to treat IBM as a gigantic scaled-up individual with a single plan and train of thought (no matter how bizarre).
It seemed to me IBM was about as single-minded as the stock market, and, therefore, would have been impossible to predict even for an insider. Here I am in the predicament of the 'IBM watcher'.
I am an outsider to embedded control, which is certainly more fragmented than IBM, trying to predict the future of microprocessors for embedded control. But at least I know (I think) when I'm out of my realm. Sometimes I wonder, though, about the full-time professional embedded control industry watchers.