Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law? -

Moore’s Law trumped by Wright’s Law?


PORTLAND, Ore.—When it comes to predicting the future, Moore's Law has been a time-worn bell-weather.

But did you know its just one of several competing laws with names like Sinclair-Klepper-Cohen's, Goddard's and Wright's Law?

Recently researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) compared the accuracy of each competing law in both its short- and long-term predictions.

MIT claims their findings will improve the accuracy of future predictions about technological change, candidate technologies and policies for global change.

Overall the best long-term predictor is Wright's Law, which improves its accuracy over Moore's law by framing its horizon in terms of units-of-production instead of absolute time.

To read more, go to News & Analysis.

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